The centre-right opposition parties could scarcely contain their glee last night, as special panel shows were hastily put together to discuss the unfolding crisis. And who could blame them.

A consistent line was taken, as if the election campaign were already underway (something that is far from certain). Across the board spokesmen for Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, or Gianfranco Fini’s Alleanza Nazionale, or Umberto Bossi’s Lega Nord, and even Pierferdinando Cassini’s UDC were conistent. Measure up Berlusconi’s last government with Prodi’s and you’ll see one government that, for the first time in the history of the republic, managed to see out its full term, and the other which has been barely capable of lasting 9months.

A fact which is depressingly true.

That the diverse factions in the centre-left can barely agree on the day of the week is evident. On virtually every major issue, the diverse parties have wildly varying stances – be it legislation on moral issues, for example euthanasia or civil unions, or the big international questions, like Afghanistan or peace-keeping in Lebanon.

What’s interesting, and underplayed thus far in discussion, is the fact that the centre-right parties have major divisions themselves – ranging from economic policy, through to fundamental institutional questions such as national unity. Berlusconi’s first government, let’s not forget, was brought down acrimoniously by the Lega Nord, less than a year after its election. His second government lost the support of the UDC, forcing a Berlusconi Bis (where Berlusconi formally dissolved his government, to reform it easily given the majority numbers held in both camera and senate).

So, how is it that Berlusconi managed where Prodi has failed? Well, there are two major points:
1) Berlusconi’s government was elected under a different electoral law – one which favoured majorities for the victor in both senate and chamber of deputies. Berlusconi’s government passed, in their final days in office, an electoral law that in its design was virtually guaranteed to ensure that the election victors would not have an overwhelming majority – an electoral law virtually disowned by its own creator, Roberto Calderoli of the Lega Nord, who termed it a porchatta

2) Should we underestimate the fact that for Berlusconi remaining in government makes good business sense? His tenacity at holding power runs hand in hand with the fact that his government passed legislation frequently that favoured both his legal and business positions. Compromise, and horse-trading worked wonders for a fractious coalition – held together by a man who stood to lose personally should the government fall.

Romano Prodi has no such incentive. Indeed Prodi’s political strategy has always been to put pressure on his political allies with the threat that his patience might run out.

So, if you want a durable government, bang a dollop of ‘conflict of interest’ in to the mix. It’ll work wonders.