The View from Bologna

What makes for responsible government

The centre-right opposition parties could scarcely contain their glee last night, as special panel shows were hastily put together to discuss the unfolding crisis. And who could blame them.

A consistent line was taken, as if the election campaign were already underway (something that is far from certain). Across the board spokesmen for Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, or Gianfranco Fini's Alleanza Nazionale, or Umberto Bossi's Lega Nord, and even Pierferdinando Cassini's UDC were conistent. Measure up Berlusconi's last government with Prodi's and you'll see one government that, for the first time in the history of the republic, managed to see out its full term, and the other which has been barely capable of lasting 9months.

A fact which is depressingly true.

That the diverse factions in the centre-left can barely agree on the day of the week is evident. On virtually every major issue, the diverse parties have wildly varying stances - be it legislation on moral issues, for example euthanasia or civil unions, or the big international questions, like Afghanistan or peace-keeping in Lebanon.

What's interesting, and underplayed thus far in discussion, is the fact that the centre-right parties have major divisions themselves - ranging from economic policy, through to fundamental institutional questions such as national unity. Berlusconi's first government, let's not forget, was brought down acrimoniously by the Lega Nord, less than a year after its election. His second government lost the support of the UDC, forcing a Berlusconi Bis (where Berlusconi formally dissolved his government, to reform it easily given the majority numbers held in both camera and senate).

So, how is it that Berlusconi managed where Prodi has failed? Well, there are two major points:
1) Berlusconi's government was elected under a different electoral law - one which favoured majorities for the victor in both senate and chamber of deputies. Berlusconi's government passed, in their final days in office, an electoral law that in its design was virtually guaranteed to ensure that the election victors would not have an overwhelming majority - an electoral law virtually disowned by its own creator, Roberto Calderoli of the Lega Nord, who termed it a porchatta

2) Should we underestimate the fact that for Berlusconi remaining in government makes good business sense? His tenacity at holding power runs hand in hand with the fact that his government passed legislation frequently that favoured both his legal and business positions. Compromise, and horse-trading worked wonders for a fractious coalition - held together by a man who stood to lose personally should the government fall.

Romano Prodi has no such incentive. Indeed Prodi's political strategy has always been to put pressure on his political allies with the threat that his patience might run out.

So, if you want a durable government, bang a dollop of 'conflict of interest' in to the mix. It'll work wonders.

And the answer is...

While Berlusconi was in power, particularly for the second time, the usual question asked by non-Italians, was 'how could you have voted for such a government?', headed by a man with a shady past, with court cases coming out of his proverbials, not to mention his tendency towards Bernard Manning-style improv-comedy on the world stage.

The answer, unfortunately, has always been - 'but have you seen the other guys?'.

Prodi's government has fallen in a self-inflicted defeat. Technically the defeat in the Senate does not force the resignation of the government. Humiliating, sure, but not an issue that would force the government to resign (indeed it has already lost a number of votes in the senate). What made it an issue to resign was the determination of foreign minister Massimo D'Allema, who publicly stated to the press, presumably with the approval of his cabinet colleagues, that should the bill on Afghanistan be defeated it would be time for the government to step down.

Should the two rebels being blamed for the government's defeat have voted in favour of a renewed mission in Afghanistan, to save the government? Given that America is gearing up for renewed fighting in Iraq, and a probable escalation with Iran, the question should probably be more directed towards D'Allema, asking why this issue was important enough to perform Hari Kari on?

Beppe Grillo, the hugely popular comedian/satirist/internet activist, reflected a popular view this evening when he lambasted the government for the choice of issue on which to have this showdown:

"A philo-Bush line was not in the programme of the Union. Nor was VicenzaLebanonKabul. [...] I would have understood a government beaten over electoral reform for giving back citizens the right to choose their candidates. Or defeated on a law on conflict of interests. Or ripped apart for eliminating ad personam laws. In all these cases it would have had my admiration. For Kabul no. Just ask Gino Strada why."¹

The waters are muddy still, but this evening a number of different scenarios are taking shape:
1) Prodi returns to the parliament for a vote of confidence, which, after yet another agreement on policy between the various different parties that make up the centre-left coalition, he will win. The government lasts as long as it lasts. Given the numbers, this is unlikely.

2) As with #1, but with the scope simply of modifying the electoral laws, to ensure that a split parliament does not recur - then to elections.

3) Prodi can't or won't do either of the above, and elections are immediately called.

4) A caretaker government, without Prodi, takes the stage to deal with pressing matters such as Afghanistan and the electoral reform.

The smart money is on a combination of #1 & 2 - i.e the government will try to do #1, while preparing the worst case scenario of #2.

One thing you can bet on, though, is that despite the atrocious leadership shown over these last months, none of the apparatchiks will be stepping down.

And that, dear friends, is why Italians will vote for Berlusconi...

1. "La politica filo Bush non era nel programma dell’Unione. Neppure Vicenzalibanokabul.

Avrei capito un Governo battuto sulla riforma elettorale per riconsegnare ai cittadini la possibilità di scegliere il candidato. O strabattuto su una legge per il conflitto di interessi. O frantumato per l’eliminazione delle leggi ad personam. In tutti questi casi avrebbe avuto la mia ammirazione.
Per Kabul no. Bastava chiedere a Gino Strada per sapere perchè."

Prodi's Government Falls - Mediaset Share Prices Rise

Romano Prodi's government has fallen, having lost a vote in the senate on a proposed renewal of Italy's mission in Afghanistan.

It's unclear exactly what will happen - as consulatations start tomorrow to see whether the numbers can be found to form a new government, or whether new elections will be held.

Mediaset shares, in the meantime, took a sharp turn upwards this afternoon. Mediaset is, of course, Silvio Berlusconi's media company.

The Tragedy of Big Brother

Fabio Fazio, presnter of the talk show Che tempo che fa, interviewing Eduardo Sanguineti, one of Italy's leading poets, asked the sixty-million dollar question: Are reality-shows, like Big Brother, the modern translation of tragedy?

Sanguineti, scarcely missing a beat - and without paying much attention to the fact that Che Tempo Che Fa is itself an endemol production - replied: Yes, in aristotelian terms, let's say if the task of tragedy is to provoke terror and compassion, then definitely...

Free Legal Aid

Brilliant.

Cesare Previti, lawyer and one-time right-hand man of Berlusconi, sentenced to five years for his role in corrupting a judge during one of Berlusconi's many trials and tribulations, has had his sentence changed, yet again, thanks to the swings and roundabouts of a legal process that has never been short of controversial and highly political.

Previti, it will be remembered, gave his name informally to the controversial legislation sought by the last government, when it was rechristened 'Salva Previti' (as its provisions, coincidentally, would have had a very favourable impact upon his sentence).

He now, after all the swings and roundabouts of his case have been negotiated, will end up, serving his sentence by donating his time to the social services, giving free legal advice.

So, someone who has been found guilty of corrupting a judge, and subverting the course of justice in one of the most high-profile court cases this country has seen, will, as a punishment, be giving free legal advice.

Brilliant.

Mobility tips for News Journalists

Living in the European Union, I'm concerned for one group of working Italians who may have difficulties in the international labour market, given that they seem unaware of the general codes of practice that pertain to their sector outside Italy. So, in a hopefully humble gesture of European solidarity, this monkey offers some tips to Italian news journalists (across all the networks).

1) If your news report needs atmospheric music accompanying it in the background - it's not news, but melodrama (look it up).
2) It's not obligatory to carry every public utterance by his Holiness, Pope Benny. Don't worry - in the unlikely event that an Italian Catholic is unsure what the papal view on a topic may be, he/she can consult the pope's own radio, tv shows, newspaper, or (God Forbid) one's priest. A simple litmus test can be carried out on Ratzi's newsworthiness. If he's said it a thousand times before, it probably ain't news.
3) Giving the microphone to a politician to pronounce a statement, followed closely by giving it to one of his opponents to respond is not an example of fair and balanced reporting. Balanced it may be - news reporting it ain't.

4) and finally, flying one of your 'reporters' to Barcellona to bring us all the latest developments on mobile phone technology, and finishing the report with a to-camera gushing appraisal of one particular brand of phone, presented not even by the reporter but by a marketing executive of said brand, ain't news. It's an ad.

Hope that helps.