The View from Bologna

Prodi and the Unione coalition, which, according to the election results issued by the Interior Ministry, won a majority in both the Camera and Senate with a handful of votes (25,000 for the Camera), have declared themselves - perhaps hastily - the winners. In Bologna, last night, Prodi once more ruled out a German style Grand Coalition, to much applause. The cheers were even louder when he announced "he [Berlusconi] has to pack up and go home"[1]

Two distinct tactics have emerged since the photo-finish results on Tuesday morning. Prodi and his party are taking every opportunity to establish themselves as the legitimate government, however slim their majority. Prodi lists the world leaders who have rung him up to congratulate him (Chirac, Shimon Peres, EU Commission President Barroso - notably absent have been George W. Bush and Berlusconi's regular holiday guest, Tony Blair), and has outlined the rough timetable for his Government to take power according to the guidelines laid out by the Constitution and President Ciampi.

Berlusconi, after a long silence, has gone on the offensive, with a two-pronged attack. The first front has been to call into question the winning result for Prodi. He has consistently refered to brogli or vote-rigging. At the same time, he made an appeal on Tuesday night for some type of Grand Coalition, suggesting that the victory has been so slight that Prodi can't morally expect to rule as a majority government, even though the electoral laws, established by his own government, make it technically possible (and few can be in doubt that were the slim majority on the other foot, Berlusconi would exploit it ruthlessly in the name of democracy).

Brogli or Errori?

Leaving a meeting with President Ciampi, yesterday, Berlusconi told Sky TV reporters, on camera, that there had been lots of brogli or vote-rigging, and that the election results must be changed. Later, this had been toned down by his own party Forza Italia into talk of errors in the count which need to be re-examined.

That there have been irregularities is probable, and normal. Any large administrative process such as a General Election will have mistakes. In fact, as after all elections in Italy, a number of contested votes are being re-examined under the auspices of the judiciary. In total there are about 43,000 votes for the Camera that are disputed, and are being re-examined with a likely definitive result later today. That this result will change the overall result is unlikely. The centre left lead by 25,000 votes. They are just as likely to pick up contested votes as the centre right, according to today's Corriere della Sera, which reports that in cities like Milan and Napoli a larger number of Unione votes were contested than centre-right.

So under the electoral rules established by Berlusconi's outgoing government, it looks likely that the centre-left coalition of Romano Prodi will be confirmed as winners with a working majority in the lower house, and a slim majority in the Senate.

Rules have a tendency to be seen as 'guidelines' by Berlusconi though, and he and his party are now lobbying for a special decree to force the re-examination of all spoiled votes for this election (over one million, a reduction of over 60% in relation to the 2001 election), something that is not provided for by either the Constitution or current electoral law.

At the same time, though, Berlusconi's centre-right allies are clearly distancing themselves from the demand for a full recount of the spoiled votes. Ignazio La Russa, a leading member of Alleanza Nazionale spoke of the need to recheck contested votes, but added that he had no evidence of any vote-rigging, as mentioned by Berlusconi[2]. The UDC, the third largest party in the centre-right coalition, has also followed the line that contested votes must be re-checked (as they are anyway), but that results must be respected. In yesterday's Repubblica Berlusconi was quoted as saying "I won't let myself be put in a corner by Fini or Casini"[3].

So Berlusconi's push for a recount of spoiled votes is both a)irregular, and b) not shared by his party allies.

The Grand Coalition

The second strategy is to grudgingly accept the results, but to suggest that they are so close that a Grand Coalition must be formed to represent all Italians - à la Germany.

This strategy is nothing new to Italy - so much so that in the run up to the elections, many party leaders vowed that there would be no inciucio this time round. An inciucio is a backroom deal, where interests are secured and swapped, paying scant regard to electoral promises. For decades during the Cold War, Italy was ruled by inciucio. More recently Berlusconi and Massimo D'Alema came to an agreement after Prodi's last government fell, allowing the left to govern, probably in return for their inaction on two matters close to Berlusconi's heart - conflicts of interest, and media ownership.

There's little popular support for a Grand Coalition, certainly from the centre-left coalition who justifiably argue that, however small, they have a democratically won majority and intend to govern. While the left-wing failed to pull off a landscale victory, their vote did increase significantly this time round, based on a programme that holds little compromise in relation to Berlusconi's conflicts of interest or media ownership. To set up a Grand Coalition now would set up electoral suicide for the left in any subsequent election.

On the centre-right there's scarcely more enthusiasm for a grand-style coalition amongst Berlusconi's allies, most of whom were quietly preparing for a period in opposition prior to the unexpected strong showing for the centre-right with Tuesday's results. Gianfranco Fini interrupted Berlusconi during Tuesday evenings joint press conference, telling him to stick to an agreed script, while Berlusconi improvised on the theme of the Grand Coalition. UDC party leader Casini ruled out any coalition with the left prior to the election, and is unlikely to change direction now.

Why? Because, apart from Berlusconi, no-one has an interest in staying in power at the moment. Italy faces numerous challenges, and there's a strong expectation that Prodi's government won't last. Politically speaking it's advantageous for both AN and UDC to step into opposition. Both parties made gains in this election (the UDC doubled their vote, while AN's gains were modest), and will no doubt have a strong showing in any anticipated elections.

Forza Italia on the other hand had a huge drop in support, and looks in desperate need of a political renewal. The personal is political they say, and in Berlusconi's case being out of power will have specific risks that he is trying to avoid. Prodi has promised a European style law on conflicts of interest which would make it difficult if not impossible for Berlusconi to remain in politics while retaining his media interests. At the same time legislation that normalised his media ownership looks set to be overturned by Prodi's government, which may force one of Berlusconi's channels, Rete 4, off the air (onto satellite).

Impasse?
While it may be in Berlusconi's interests to draw out the election process, casting doubt on the new government's majority while holding out for some kind of backroom deal that will protect his interests, it's obviously not in Italy's best interests. Nature abhors a vacuum and the financial markets frown on undecided elections harshly. Points have been dropped on the Milan stock exchange, and undoubtedly pressure is on to resolve the situation.

Former President and Senator for life Francesco Cossiga, who tends to dress more to the right than the left, has called on President Ciampi to give Berlusconi an ultimatum - either concede gracefully (if that's possible at this stage), or watch as the President, constitutionally, recognises the new government.

UDC secretary Cesa has announced that, while the contested votes need to be confirmed, he doesn't believe the result will change.

Prodi, after speaking to both Interior Minister Pisanu and President Ciampi, has declared himself calm and serene, with nothing to worry about. At the same time, pressure is building on both Pisanu and Ciampi to make a response to Berlusconi's allegations.

All the signs are that by tomorrow evening at the latest Prodi's victory will be fully and officially recognised.

This Monkey, though, isn't betting on anything - out of superstition. Berlusconi remarked to journalists yesterday "you thought you'd seen the last of me, didn't you". I'm holding my breath.

[1]La Stampa, 13/04/2006
[2] Rai News 24 13/04/2006
[3] La Repubblica, 12/04/2006