The View from Bologna

Let it go Louie

So, another week passes and impasse supposedly reigns in the political sphere in Italy. Yesterday the Supreme Court ruled, in accordance with electoral procedure, on the official results of the Election. It came as no surprise to anyone (not even Berluska) that, after a week of examining contested ballot papers, the result of the election remained substantially unchanged. So, does that mean that everybody's favourite media tycoon and 'democrat' recognises defeat? Of course not.

Does it actually mean anything? Not really. There is jostling and pressure between the outgoing government and Prodi's incoming government over the timetable - there is after all a new President of the Republic to elect (a position the 69 year old Berlusconi is said to covet, either for himself or one of his 'associates'), but that aside, there is no doubt that the next government will be Prodi's centre-left coalition.

Due to the miniscule majority that Prodi holds in the Senate, it's almost inevitable that the new government will fall sooner rather than later. The game (and that is how these elected officials seem to treat politics, in the face of increasing economic woes) being played now is simply the start of the new election campaign.

Berlusconi, the richest and probably still the most powerful man in Italy long ago learned the value of being presented as the underdog. Like a perpetual Irish soccer fan (or perhaps in his Milan shirt, given their latest result), he will approach the polls, when they happen, crying 'we wuz robbed'.

Vote rigging or horse-trading - the days after the Italian General Election

The View from Bologna (Romano Prodi's home town) has been quiet this week, in the wake of the Italian general elections. Quiet for a good reason - the official verdict is still out as to who has actually won the election.

Last night, Prodi took to the stage in a packed Piazza Maggiore, here in Bologna, to celebrate the election triumph (albeit a tiny one). In 1996, while on the same stage, Prodi received a telephone call from Berlusconi conceding defeat. No such phone call was forthcoming last night - instead Berlusconi was meeting President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi in Rome outlining alleged irregularities in the vote, reported by Forza Italia's formidable electoral machinery.

Prodi and the Unione coalition, which, according to the election results issued by the Interior Ministry, won a majority in both the Camera and Senate with a handful of votes (25,000 for the Camera), have declared themselves - perhaps hastily - the winners. In Bologna, last night, Prodi once more ruled out a German style Grand Coalition, to much applause. The cheers were even louder when he announced "he [Berlusconi] has to pack up and go home"[1]

Two distinct tactics have emerged since the photo-finish results on Tuesday morning. Prodi and his party are taking every opportunity to establish themselves as the legitimate government, however slim their majority. Prodi lists the world leaders who have rung him up to congratulate him (Chirac, Shimon Peres, EU Commission President Barroso - notably absent have been George W. Bush and Berlusconi's regular holiday guest, Tony Blair), and has outlined the rough timetable for his Government to take power according to the guidelines laid out by the Constitution and President Ciampi.

Berlusconi, after a long silence, has gone on the offensive, with a two-pronged attack. The first front has been to call into question the winning result for Prodi. He has consistently refered to brogli or vote-rigging. At the same time, he made an appeal on Tuesday night for some type of Grand Coalition, suggesting that the victory has been so slight that Prodi can't morally expect to rule as a majority government, even though the electoral laws, established by his own government, make it technically possible (and few can be in doubt that were the slim majority on the other foot, Berlusconi would exploit it ruthlessly in the name of democracy).

Brogli or Errori?

Leaving a meeting with President Ciampi, yesterday, Berlusconi told Sky TV reporters, on camera, that there had been lots of brogli or vote-rigging, and that the election results must be changed. Later, this had been toned down by his own party Forza Italia into talk of errors in the count which need to be re-examined.

That there have been irregularities is probable, and normal. Any large administrative process such as a General Election will have mistakes. In fact, as after all elections in Italy, a number of contested votes are being re-examined under the auspices of the judiciary. In total there are about 43,000 votes for the Camera that are disputed, and are being re-examined with a likely definitive result later today. That this result will change the overall result is unlikely. The centre left lead by 25,000 votes. They are just as likely to pick up contested votes as the centre right, according to today's Corriere della Sera, which reports that in cities like Milan and Napoli a larger number of Unione votes were contested than centre-right.

So under the electoral rules established by Berlusconi's outgoing government, it looks likely that the centre-left coalition of Romano Prodi will be confirmed as winners with a working majority in the lower house, and a slim majority in the Senate.

Rules have a tendency to be seen as 'guidelines' by Berlusconi though, and he and his party are now lobbying for a special decree to force the re-examination of all spoiled votes for this election (over one million, a reduction of over 60% in relation to the 2001 election), something that is not provided for by either the Constitution or current electoral law.

At the same time, though, Berlusconi's centre-right allies are clearly distancing themselves from the demand for a full recount of the spoiled votes. Ignazio La Russa, a leading member of Alleanza Nazionale spoke of the need to recheck contested votes, but added that he had no evidence of any vote-rigging, as mentioned by Berlusconi[2]. The UDC, the third largest party in the centre-right coalition, has also followed the line that contested votes must be re-checked (as they are anyway), but that results must be respected. In yesterday's Repubblica Berlusconi was quoted as saying "I won't let myself be put in a corner by Fini or Casini"[3].

So Berlusconi's push for a recount of spoiled votes is both a)irregular, and b) not shared by his party allies.

The Grand Coalition

The second strategy is to grudgingly accept the results, but to suggest that they are so close that a Grand Coalition must be formed to represent all Italians - à la Germany.

This strategy is nothing new to Italy - so much so that in the run up to the elections, many party leaders vowed that there would be no inciucio this time round. An inciucio is a backroom deal, where interests are secured and swapped, paying scant regard to electoral promises. For decades during the Cold War, Italy was ruled by inciucio. More recently Berlusconi and Massimo D'Alema came to an agreement after Prodi's last government fell, allowing the left to govern, probably in return for their inaction on two matters close to Berlusconi's heart - conflicts of interest, and media ownership.

There's little popular support for a Grand Coalition, certainly from the centre-left coalition who justifiably argue that, however small, they have a democratically won majority and intend to govern. While the left-wing failed to pull off a landscale victory, their vote did increase significantly this time round, based on a programme that holds little compromise in relation to Berlusconi's conflicts of interest or media ownership. To set up a Grand Coalition now would set up electoral suicide for the left in any subsequent election.

On the centre-right there's scarcely more enthusiasm for a grand-style coalition amongst Berlusconi's allies, most of whom were quietly preparing for a period in opposition prior to the unexpected strong showing for the centre-right with Tuesday's results. Gianfranco Fini interrupted Berlusconi during Tuesday evenings joint press conference, telling him to stick to an agreed script, while Berlusconi improvised on the theme of the Grand Coalition. UDC party leader Casini ruled out any coalition with the left prior to the election, and is unlikely to change direction now.

Why? Because, apart from Berlusconi, no-one has an interest in staying in power at the moment. Italy faces numerous challenges, and there's a strong expectation that Prodi's government won't last. Politically speaking it's advantageous for both AN and UDC to step into opposition. Both parties made gains in this election (the UDC doubled their vote, while AN's gains were modest), and will no doubt have a strong showing in any anticipated elections.

Forza Italia on the other hand had a huge drop in support, and looks in desperate need of a political renewal. The personal is political they say, and in Berlusconi's case being out of power will have specific risks that he is trying to avoid. Prodi has promised a European style law on conflicts of interest which would make it difficult if not impossible for Berlusconi to remain in politics while retaining his media interests. At the same time legislation that normalised his media ownership looks set to be overturned by Prodi's government, which may force one of Berlusconi's channels, Rete 4, off the air (onto satellite).

Impasse?
While it may be in Berlusconi's interests to draw out the election process, casting doubt on the new government's majority while holding out for some kind of backroom deal that will protect his interests, it's obviously not in Italy's best interests. Nature abhors a vacuum and the financial markets frown on undecided elections harshly. Points have been dropped on the Milan stock exchange, and undoubtedly pressure is on to resolve the situation.

Former President and Senator for life Francesco Cossiga, who tends to dress more to the right than the left, has called on President Ciampi to give Berlusconi an ultimatum - either concede gracefully (if that's possible at this stage), or watch as the President, constitutionally, recognises the new government.

UDC secretary Cesa has announced that, while the contested votes need to be confirmed, he doesn't believe the result will change.

Prodi, after speaking to both Interior Minister Pisanu and President Ciampi, has declared himself calm and serene, with nothing to worry about. At the same time, pressure is building on both Pisanu and Ciampi to make a response to Berlusconi's allegations.

All the signs are that by tomorrow evening at the latest Prodi's victory will be fully and officially recognised.

This Monkey, though, isn't betting on anything - out of superstition. Berlusconi remarked to journalists yesterday "you thought you'd seen the last of me, didn't you". I'm holding my breath.

[1]La Stampa, 13/04/2006
[2] Rai News 24 13/04/2006
[3] La Repubblica, 12/04/2006

Coglioni of the world unite

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, addressing a group of business leaders on Tuesday, got together all of his formidable marketing skills to find a slogan to gather voters to his cause: "I've too much respect for the intelligence of the Italians to believe that there could be many coglioni about who would vote against their own interests"[1].

For the benefit of the non-Italian speakers, let's investigage this curious term 'coglioni'.
"Coglione (sing)- fool, naive, dingbat, dickhead. Literally testicle (from the latin coleo -onis). To be compared to a bollock is not a beautiful thing; if we start from sperm and develop through the life cycle, to call someone a coglione is to tell them that in terms of development (in this case of the brain) they remain someway behind."[Ditelo con gli insulti - Marco Zanni]

Needless to say, each and every party leader from Romano Prodi's centre-left coalition were prudishly incensed by Berluska's vulgarity. On television screens and newspaper pages they shrieked (for all the world like prim and priggish schoolteachers) about lack of respect for voters and democracy. In reality, they were no doubt relieved by Berlusconi's latest gaffe. A gaffe that quickly stole the thunder from his monday night bombshell, announced as the closing statement during the debate with Prodi (allowing for no reply), that if elected he would cancel a much contested tax on house property, ICI.

In truth, vulgarity from the top levels of government aren't that unusual. There are the classic examples: John Major's "do we want three more of the bastards out there"[2]; George W. Bush's "he's a major league asshole"[3]; or indeed Ireland's leading politician Charles Haughey, several times Taoiseach (Prime Minister), who was quoted in an interview, between stints as Taoiseach, as saying "I can instance a load of ****ers whose throats I'd cut and push off a cliff"[4].

While perhaps inspired by Bush, admiring the common touch and electoral success, the difference with Berlusconi's comments were that rather than occuring in an unguarded moment with a journalist, or speaking in private, Berlusconi made these comments in public and thus as an electoral statement. Vote for me, or you're a coglione. Nice slogan.

With lightning reflexes a site sonouncoglione [I'm a coglione] was up and running and coglioni parties were organised in major cities throughout Italy. Now t-shirts and badges, with the slogan 'I'm a coglione', are selling like hot cakes. Voters are urged to go to the polls proudly and openly as coglioni.

The centre-right party leaders have all stood up for Berlusconi, but there's no sign that they're keen to take up the battle-cry. The balls-up made by Berluska in this instance illustrates two things:

First, that, contrary to the constant barrage of analysts wheeled out in the media who inform us that Berlusconi is a master media manipulator and marketing genius, he is far from innovative. The emperor is clothed but in a dull suit with old, old ideas*. Insulting your opponents isn't big or clever. Taking the insult and turning it into a badge of honour (and one that can be sold), is.

Second, it reconfirms Berlusconi's view of government and gives further ammunition, if any were needed, for those suggesting that his conflict of interests are too grave to allow his active participation in politics. Government, in the Berlusconi worldview, is about protecting personal interests. Handy for a man who has so many interests.

His common touch intervention has given those who view the current government's record as one of incompetence motivated by self-interest, a brilliant smile-raising slogan to rally around.

The injection of vulgarity has also given license for millions of jokes to circulate, at his expense, traded widely, and independently of where you fall on the left-right divide**.

Those hoping for a left-wing victory when the country goes to the polls on Sunday and Monday, will be urging Berlusconi to use his marketing genius as often as possible.

* One of Berlusconi's consistent selling points is that he's a rich and successful businessman. The argument goes that if he had the acumen to build a media and business empire for himself, obviously he can do it for Italy. What's so often left out of the equation though is the consistent use of political connections, legislation and anti-competitive practices to build this empire. A very old-fashioned business success, rather than the innovative one we're led to believe. Further reading David Lane's Berlusconi's Shadow.

**Personal favourite - L'unica consolazione è che i coglioni sono sempre in numero doppio rispetto alle teste di cazzo

[1] - Corriere della Sera, Tuesday 5/04/06
[2]John Major hits out at cabinet - The Guardian 25/03/1993
[3] Salon 04/09/2000
[4] Haughey in interview with John Waters - Hot Press Magazine 1984