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Trying Times in Darfur and the Establishment of International Criminal Law - a PINR report.

By Adam Wolfe

March 2005

The conflict has eliminated much of the food supply in Darfur, and humanitarian aid agencies are unable to reach vast areas of the region, driving up the price of food beyond the reach of most Darfurians. The janjaweed have government backers to provide supplies; the western rebels can count on their counterparts in the east and across the border for subsistence. Those caught in the fighting, unable to reach refugee camps, will likely starve in the coming months. The conflict must be resolved quickly for this to be prevented; an I.C.C. investigation -- even if it proves effective in eliminating the environment of impunity -- is unlikely to force a negotiated settlement rapidly.

Conclusion

The current debate over the I.C.C.'s role in Darfur has little to do with ending Sudan's conflict; it is about establishing protocols for the next Darfur. If the U.S. concedes authority to the I.C.C. in this instance, it will be more likely to do so the next time a country or region collapses along tribal or ethnic lines. If the U.S. can prevent the I.C.C. from gaining jurisdiction over Darfur, it will be better able to do the same the next time around. The U.S. would like to remain unbound in conducting its international affairs; the E.U. and other I.C.C. supporters would like to create an environment in which all states are bound to a basic legal code.

Events outside of Sudan seem to indicate that the world is becoming more multipolar. The tide in the Security Council has turned against the U.S.' opposition to the I.C.C., and even those countries who do not support the court -- China and Russia -- might be willing to support I.C.C. jurisdiction in Darfur to further this drift toward multipolarity. While granting I.C.C. jurisdiction over Darfur may not be the most efficient way to resolve the conflict, it appears that it is the most optimal solution for those states seeking to slightly weaken the U.S.' position as the sole superpower, and for this reason it is likely to be a major component of the next Security Council R\resolution on Darfur.

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Adam Wolfe is a communications analyst and a contributor to the Power and Interest News Report. His analyses have been printed in many publications, such as the Asia Times and the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. He has a degree in communications from the University of Wisconsin.

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader

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