A Cardiff Decider. Six Nations Rugby analysis and predictions.

And so we come to the most recent encounter, Ireland against England. The person who will be most pleased with this result (19-13 to Ireland) is Mike Ford, Ireland’s defensive coach. Despite tremendous English pressure, the Irish line held firm, making over 100 successful tackles, and you never had the feeling that the line was going to be breached. Andy Robinson made a lot of noise about a few close calls made by the South African referee, Jonathan Kaplan. Robinson has claimed that England were denied a try when a cross field kick by Charlie Hodgson to Mark Cueto was ruled offside. Despite Robinson’s protestations, none of the camera angles has been conclusive. However, they have shown that Kaplan was perfectly positioned, in line with Hodgson, looking across to Cueto’s wing. Also, Robinson claims Josh Lewsey grounded the ball late in the second half, only for Kaplan to award a scrum to the Irish. Lewsey did indeed cross the try line and go to ground, but unfortunately for him, he fell sideways and held the ball in his upper arm. At this point, Johnny O’Connor robbed him, and drove forwards a metre and a half. When Kaplan whistled, Ireland were in possession and were going forward, albeit perilously close to their own line. So the decision was correct. Robinson also ignores the fact that Ronan O’Gara and Paul O’Connell were both held in the ruck for England’s first half try, leaving a gap a mile wide in the Irish defence. It is this search for excuses for defeat, rather than reasons, that makes it unlikely that England will improve in the short term. Luckily for them, they only have Scotland and Italy left.

Ireland’s try came from a beautiful move set up by Denis Hickie who made the initial burst and fed Geordan Murphy. Murphy played to O’Driscoll and moved around to support him. Murphy received the ball again, sold a wonderful dummy to the left but popped the pass to O’Driscoll on the right. Hodgson got a touch on the pass and came within a whisker of an interception, but O’Driscoll gathered the ball in the air behind him, skipped along the wing and touched down under the posts to leave O’Gara with an easy conversion.

This was a game where O’Driscoll demonstrated his own style of leadership. Never the most vocal player on the pitch, he leads by example. If any of the Irish players wondered where their captain was, they only had to look where the action was hottest. O’Driscoll was everywhere, an extra forward in the rucks and sniping in attack. He was also the first man to assist Ronan O’Gara who 'became entangled' with the English forwards in the first half. Exactly what you want from a captain.

So what have we learned, and what’s left? Well, Scotland and Italy are very poor. England are a shadow of the team they once were. France possess an amount of flair but it’s not certain that their hearts are in it. When they made the effort, in patches against England and Wales, they produced some excellent rugby. On the other hand, with a decent kicker England would have comfortably beaten them, and Wales demonstrated that their defence can definitely be breached. This only came after the French proved that the Welsh defence had its weaknesses, so we know that both teams have excellent runners but both are prone to leaving gaps. Despite slow starts against Scotland and Italy, the Irish defence has been the best in the competition. The Irish backs have not received the ball in attacking positions as often as the crowd would like, but they have created some excellent scores with the possession available to them.

France are undoubtedly a potential banana skin for Ireland, but the Irish have progressed significantly under Eddie O’Sullivan. Where once we relied on getting the rub of the green, playing with traditional fire and passion, and our opponents having an off-day, things have changed completely now. Ireland have the best team in the northern hemisphere, the best coach, and the best captain(s). If we have our best players available and they give something close to their best performance, then it doesn’t matter what our opponents do. For that reason, I’m backing us to beat France in a close game. Wales will beat Scotland comfortably, setting up a Triple Crown/Championship/Grand Slam and whatever you’re having yourself, decider in Cardiff. Even if France beat Ireland, both sides will still be playing for the championship in Cardiff (a mathematical certainty).

Breaking the golden rule of not looking beyond the next game, I’m predicting that Ireland’s superior experience and big-match temperament will overcome Welsh home advantage and enthusiasm. You read it here first.

Footnote: Due to an unfortunately-timed holiday, I’ll be in Kuala Lumpur for Ireland’s trip to Cardiff [so much for the crystal ball gazing!]. If anybody knows a pub in KL that will be televising the match, please e-mail Bill Quigley.